Альфа Форекс

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5 June 2015
Картина дня

Bond market volatility continues ECB President Draghi was right when he said that we'd just have to get used to greater volatility in the bond market. Yesterday the yield on the 10-year Bund went from 0.89% at Wednesday's close to 0.996% -- almost 1% -- at the peak before finishing the day down around 0.84%, lower than Wednesday's close, after IMF Managing Director Lagarde downgraded US economic growth prospects and called on the Fed to hold off its first rate hike. The 10-year Treasury also had an 12-bp range on the day.

Greek drama intensifies During her press conference yesterday, Lagarde said that Greece was going to make the EUR 300mn payment that's due today, but then later in the day, the country announced that it would delay the payment to the end of the month. This is within the (rarely used) IMF rules, which say that if a country has several payments to make in one month, it can bundle them all together and make one payment at the end of the month. Nonetheless the delay is a bad sign because it implies that a) Greece doesn't have the money to make today's payment and b) expects the negotiations to drag on for longer. In fact the country did reject the creditors' proposal as "unacceptable," which makes me wonder what other agreement they would prefer to accept? Tsipras may believe he can get an agreement through Parliament by the end of the month, or perhaps he hopes that the US and IMF will put pressure on the EU authorities and further brinksmanship will win further concessions. I doubt it. I think he will eventually have to call a referendum to get a new mandate that will enable him to accept the unacceptable.

We should watch next Wednesday's decision by the ECB on the Greek Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to gauge how the creditors view this move. I expect they will not be happy and at the very least will not increase the ELA. The Eurogroup of EU finance ministers says it expects Greece to respond to the proposal by next Monday, and officials are reportedly pressing for an agreement to be finalized by Sunday, June 14th. In any event the country will have to reach a settlement by the end of the month, not only because the IMF payments are due then but also because its overall financing program expires at the end of June anyway. The IMF requires assurances that a country is fully financed for the next twelve months before it will participate in a financing program, meaning if they do not come to an agreement, the IMF will withdraw its financing, and that's that. So one way or another this drama, which has been running for some five years, should be resolved one way or the other in the next three weeks.

EUR/USD basically followed Bund yields up and then back down yesterday. This morning the dollar is higher against most currencies after some good US data yesterday. Challenger job cuts were down 23% yoy, initial jobless claims fell, while unit labor costs rose more than expected, indicating that the tighter labor market may finally be feeding through to higher wages.

Today's highlights: Friday is a relatively light day as far as data releases are concerned. During the European day, we get German factory orders for April and Norway's industrial production for the same month.

The main event of the day will be the US nonfarm payrolls! The market forecast for May is for an increase in payrolls of 226k, about the same as the 223k in April. Another reading above 200k could suggest that the US labor market is gathering steam again and is likely to boost USD across the board as it would leave the September rate hike scenario alive. At the same time, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise at the same pace as in April.

Canada's unemployment rate for May is also due to be released.

The OPEC meeting starts today. The organization is widely expected to keep its production target unchanged at 30mn barrels per day, especially after the rebound in prices from their January lows. Saudi Arabia has made clear it wants to continue to defend market share rather than prices. The UAE oil minister said that "nothing significant" will happen at the meeting, which itself is significant; it means they will continue to overproduce. If there is a surprise it's likely to be on the upside. The group already pumps above the quota (31.58mn barrels a day in May, according to Bloomberg) and has done for the last year. They could make that official and increase the production target. That would probably put further downward pressure on oil prices. Lower oil prices are a negative for CAD, NOK and AUD especially. JPY, CHF, and EUR tend to be uncorrelated with oil prices.

Greek PM Tsipras will address the Greek Parliament at 1800 local time to brief MPs on the negotiations. The address will be followed by a debate. Some of the SYRIZA MPs are suggesting that they call new elections to get a fresh mandate, otherwise they cannot accept the proposals.

Over the weekend there will be a G7 meeting in Bavaria, Germany. German Chancellor Merkel is trying to prevent Greece from dominating the discussion as she wants to keep the focus on Ukraine.

Turkey holds elections Sunday.


08 June 2015
Картина дня
  • Греция будет доминировать на рынках на этой неделе
    • ПМ Ципрас выступил с вызывающей речью в парламенте в Пятницу; кредиторы теряют терпение
    • Банк Греции попросил увеличить ELA; посмотрим, что сделает ЕЦБ в среду
  • Турецкое правительство теряет голоса; TRY пробивает рекордные минимумы
    • Правящая Партия справедливости потеряла большинство своих голосов в воскресенье; другие партии отвергают коалицию
    • Увеличение политической нестабильности, неуверенность в экономической политике = слабая лира
  • Q1 ВВП Японии пересмотрен, но торговый баланс опустится в зону дефицита
    • Пересмотр ВВП в сторону повышения в 1 квартале говорит о том, что потребуется меньше усилий для Банка Японии для увеличения стимулирования = JPY-положительный, но дефицит торгового баланса в апреле по-прежнему предполагает давление на слабую JPY
  • Обвал китайского импорта в мае может отрицательно сказаться на AUD, NZD
  • Сегодня: только второстепенные данные
    • Еврозона: промышленное производство Германии за апрель
    • США: индекс условий на рынке труда (не большой двигатель рынка)
  • На этой неделе:
    • Вторник: Китай CPI и PPI за май; JOLTS США
    • Среда: Норвежский CPI за май; Промышленное производство Великобритании за апрель
    • Четверг: встреча Резервного банка Новой Зеландии, как ожидается, оставит ставки на удержании; Розничные продажи в США за май
    • Пятница: предварительный индекс настроений потребителей Reuters/Michigan в июне



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